| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Wake Forest | 9-10 | 1244.5 | -21.9 | 1222.6 | 32.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Indiana | 9-56 | 1222.6 | -3.3 | 1219.3 | 5.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Merrimack | 27-13 | 1219.3 | +0.0 | 1219.3 | 16.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 28-21 | 1219.3 | +57.1 | 1276.4 | 26.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 24-16 | 1276.4 | +26.8 | 1303.2 | 61.2% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | W | Louisiana Tech | 35-7 | 1303.2 | +38.3 | 1341.5 | 47.1% |
| 10 | Oct 21 2025 | W | Florida International | 45-26 | 1341.5 | +39.5 | 1381.0 | 61.2% |
| 11 | Oct 28 2025 | W | UTEP | 33-20 | 1381.0 | +14.3 | 1395.3 | 78.2% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 24-21 | 1395.3 | +26.5 | 1421.8 | 75.2% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 26-35 | 1421.8 | -25.4 | 1396.4 | 36.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Missouri State | 41-34 | 1396.4 | +55.4 | 1451.8 | 28.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Liberty | 48-42 | 1451.8 | +30.3 | 1482.1 | 71.2% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 19-15 | 1482.1 | +53.4 | 1535.5 | 44.8% |
| 18 | Dec 19 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 6-41 | 1535.5 | -41.4 | 1494.1 | 48.7% |